Upbeat sentiment, somewhat emerging in January after three months, prevailed in the African polyolefin market this month. Tight supply conditions are the main driver behind price increases, although demand remains under heavy pressure from economic challenges.
West African PP and PE market increased overall prices
In Nigeria, Africa’s largest market, PE and PP quotes from a major Saudi Arabian producer showed an increase of $30-100/ton after tracking a steady or rising trend in January. A domestic distributor said that shipments from both the US and the Middle East were scarce, especially HDPE film and therefore, HDPE prices saw the sharpest increase.
Meanwhile, rising costs of imported goods contribute to overall inflationary pressures, continuing to impact demand.
ELEME’s increase remained the same for the 7th consecutive month
Nigerian domestic producer ELEME has announced an increase of NGN 230,000-232,800/ton ($157-160/ton) for PE quotes and an increase of NGN 229,400-244,000/ton ($156-168/ton) for PP compared to January prices. According to market sources, the devaluation of the naira remains the main factor supporting the continued price increase.
The price increase announcement still lags behind the rapid depreciation of the Nigerian naira
However, despite ELEME’s efforts to adjust prices upward, the depreciation of the Nigerian naira has far exceeded the increase offered by the manufacturer. As can be seen from the chart on the left, the ChemOrbis Price Index shows a cumulative increase in average domestic prices reaching NGN 834,500/tonne, in other words almost 85%, since July 2023, reaching a high new record ever recorded.
However, the manufacturer’s dollar-converted price, calculated based on the average rate for each relevant week, tells a different story as the dollar-converted price has increased by an average of about 580- 600 USD/ton from July to December. This cumulative increase is equivalent to about 48-50%. However, the dollar-converted price fell in January and February despite the NGN price increases, with a total decline of more than $600/tonne, or 35%. The decline accelerated especially in February when the Nigerian naira rapidly lost value against the US dollar. This can be viewed from the Price Tool chart from ChemOrbis on the right.
*Right click on the image and open in a new tab to see the full-sized chart.
Kenyan market hits eight-month high
In Kenya, the largest economy in East Africa, February PP and PE quotes from a major Saudi Arabian producer show an increase of around $50-70/tonne compared to the latest prices in January , after they did not change significantly throughout January. One trader said: “Supply from Middle Eastern manufacturers is not abundant, however demand is still tied to basic needs in the business context. disappointing sales numbers.”
After recent price increases, the overall import price range rose to its highest level since June 2023, according to the ChemOrbis Price Index.